{"id":29531,"date":"2016-11-16T15:12:24","date_gmt":"2016-11-16T20:12:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bonnefield.76labs.com\/?p=29531"},"modified":"2026-07-07T11:39:38","modified_gmt":"2026-07-07T15:39:38","slug":"us-farmland-prices-are-softening-are-canadian-farmland-prices-likely-to-follow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bonnefield.com\/fr\/news\/us-farmland-prices-are-softening-are-canadian-farmland-prices-likely-to-follow\/","title":{"rendered":"Les prix des terres agricoles aux \u00c9tats-Unis diminuent. Les prix des terres agricoles canadiennes vont-ils suivre?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Les prix des terres agricoles aux \u00c9tats-Unis, en particulier dans le Midwest, se mod\u00e8rent et, dans certaines r\u00e9gions, diminuent m\u00eame l\u00e9g\u00e8rement par rapport \u00e0 leur sommet de 2013\/14. Les agriculteurs am\u00e9ricains ont \u00e9t\u00e9 confront\u00e9s \u00e0 des difficult\u00e9s li\u00e9es \u00e0 la force du dollar am\u00e9ricain, \u00e0 la faiblesse des prix des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res libell\u00e9s en dollars am\u00e9ricains (en particulier le soja et le ma\u00efs) et \u00e0 une s\u00e9cheresse persistante dans certaines r\u00e9gions du pays. En revanche, les perspectives pour les agriculteurs canadiens restent prometteuses. Financement agricole Canada a r\u00e9cemment pr\u00e9vu que les recettes mon\u00e9taires agricoles augmenteront de 5,81 TP3T en 2016 et augmenteront encore de 3,81 TP3T en 2017. De plus, dans un rapport publi\u00e9 en septembre, FAC a \u00e9galement soulign\u00e9 la solidit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re actuelle du secteur agricole canadien par rapport aux tendances historiques. :<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>la liquidit\u00e9 est forte avec un ratio de liquidit\u00e9 g\u00e9n\u00e9rale de 2,40, conforme \u00e0 la moyenne du secteur sur 15 ans ;<\/li>\n<li>ratio d\u2019endettement historiquement bas de 15,5% contre une moyenne sur 15 ans de 16,7%\u00a0; et<\/li>\n<li>rendement des actifs de 2,3%, proche de la moyenne sur 15 ans de 2,6%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/bonnefield3854.wpengine.com\/uploads\/images\/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-16%20at%202.57.24%20PM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"592\" height=\"149\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 592px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 592\/149;\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Pourquoi les perspectives des agriculteurs am\u00e9ricains sont-elles si diff\u00e9rentes de celles des agriculteurs canadiens ? Et quelle est la probabilit\u00e9 que la faiblesse ou la baisse des prix des terres agricoles aux \u00c9tats-Unis entra\u00eene une tendance similaire au Canada ?<\/p>\n<p>Dans de pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents articles de blogue, j'ai abord\u00e9 les principales raisons de l'optimisme persistant \u00e0 l'\u00e9gard de l'agriculture canadienne, malgr\u00e9 les difficult\u00e9s rencontr\u00e9es par le secteur am\u00e9ricain, notamment : la stabilisation des prix des r\u00e9coltes, un taux de change USD\/CAD favorable et stable, une forte demande \u00e0 l'exportation pour une vaste gamme de cultures produites par les agriculteurs canadiens (en particulier le canola et les lentilles) et la solide situation financi\u00e8re des agriculteurs canadiens.<\/p>\n<p>Outre ces facteurs, des diff\u00e9rences structurelles entre les secteurs agricoles canadien et am\u00e9ricain tendent \u00e0 prot\u00e9ger les agriculteurs canadiens (et, par cons\u00e9quent, le prix des terres agricoles canadiennes) de la baisse des prix du ma\u00efs et du soja, principale cause des difficult\u00e9s actuelles des agriculteurs am\u00e9ricains. Chez Bonnefield, nous soulignons fr\u00e9quemment les avantages concurrentiels des terres agricoles canadiennes, notamment l'acc\u00e8s \u00e0 l'eau, des perspectives plus favorables face aux changements climatiques et une moindre d\u00e9gradation des sols.<\/p>\n<p>Cependant, un avantage moins bien compris du secteur agricole canadien est sa grande diversification. <strong><em>Les agriculteurs canadiens sont beaucoup moins tributaires des prix du ma\u00efs et du soja que leurs homologues am\u00e9ricains.\u00a0<\/em> <em>Aux \u00c9tats-Unis, 178 millions d'acres, soit environ 55 % des terres cultiv\u00e9es, sont consacr\u00e9s \u00e0 la culture du ma\u00efs ou du soja. Cela repr\u00e9sente une superficie nettement sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 celle de la France enti\u00e8re, d\u00e9di\u00e9e \u00e0 la production de ces deux seules cultures. \u00c0 titre de comparaison, seulement 13 % environ des terres agricoles canadiennes sont utilis\u00e9es pour la culture du ma\u00efs et du soja. Autrement dit, la totalit\u00e9 des cultures de ma\u00efs et de soja au Canada ne repr\u00e9sente que 5 % de la superficie cultiv\u00e9e aux \u00c9tats-Unis, une superficie bien inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 celle de la Nouvelle-\u00c9cosse.<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0 Ce fait est la principale raison pour laquelle les prix des terres agricoles am\u00e9ricaines sont beaucoup plus fortement tributaires des prix du ma\u00efs et du soja que ceux des terres agricoles canadiennes.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/bonnefield3854.wpengine.com\/uploads\/images\/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-16%20at%202.57.50%20PM.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"589\" height=\"270\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 589px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 589\/270;\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Les graphiques ci-dessus illustrent la plus grande diversification du secteur agricole canadien. En effet, si les superficies am\u00e9ricaines consacr\u00e9es \u00e0 la production de coton (une culture qui n\u2019est pas cultiv\u00e9e au Canada) \u00e9taient retir\u00e9es de ces chiffres, cela illustrerait encore plus dramatiquement \u00e0 quel point les prix des terres agricoles am\u00e9ricaines sont influenc\u00e9s par les prix du march\u00e9 du ma\u00efs et du soja.<\/p>\n<p>Un facteur suppl\u00e9mentaire qui accentue la vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 des agriculteurs am\u00e9ricains face \u00e0 la baisse des prix du ma\u00efs et du soja est la pr\u00e9valence de la monoculture dans ces secteurs. Une combinaison de facteurs climatiques et agronomiques uniques permet \u00e0 certains grands exploitants am\u00e9ricains \u2013 notamment dans le Midwest \u2013 de s'affranchir des rotations culturales traditionnelles et de pratiquer la monoculture ann\u00e9e apr\u00e8s ann\u00e9e. Cette pratique est pratiquement inexistante au Canada. La monoculture exerce une pression suppl\u00e9mentaire sur les sols et exige des techniques agricoles intensives impliquant un recours beaucoup plus important aux engrais, aux herbicides et aux pesticides afin d'obtenir des rendements \u00e9lev\u00e9s et constants. Les co\u00fbts plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s li\u00e9s \u00e0 ces techniques ne sont pas un probl\u00e8me majeur en p\u00e9riode de prix \u00e9lev\u00e9s et en hausse. Mais dans un contexte de prix bas, ces co\u00fbts accrus contribuent \u00e0 r\u00e9duire les marges et la r\u00e9silience financi\u00e8re \u2013 une tendance que nous observons actuellement dans une grande partie du secteur agricole am\u00e9ricain.<\/p>\n<p>La baisse des prix des terres agricoles aux \u00c9tats-Unis est-elle donc un indicateur avanc\u00e9 de ce qui pourrait arriver aux prix des terres agricoles au Canada ? Potentiellement, mais peu probable. Les agriculteurs am\u00e9ricains sont beaucoup plus expos\u00e9s \u00e0 la faiblesse des prix du ma\u00efs et du soja que les agriculteurs canadiens.\u00a0 <strong><em>\u00a0Les agriculteurs canadiens b\u00e9n\u00e9ficient de (i) une plus grande diversification des cultures, (ii) une forte demande, des prix \u00e9lev\u00e9s et une moindre concurrence internationale pour les principales cultures canadiennes comme le canola et les lentilles, (iii) un taux de change favorable entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et le Canada, (iv) des fondamentaux financiers solides de le secteur agricole canadien, et (v) de brillantes perspectives de rentabilit\u00e9 agricole continue. \u00c0 notre avis, toute faiblesse des prix des terres agricoles canadiennes serait probablement de courte dur\u00e9e et repr\u00e9senterait une opportunit\u00e9 d&#039;achat.\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Un sc\u00e9nario plus probable est que les taux d\u2019appr\u00e9ciation des terres agricoles canadiennes reviendront aux normes \u00e0 long terme apr\u00e8s plusieurs ann\u00e9es de croissance d\u00e9mesur\u00e9e au cours de la p\u00e9riode 2010-2014.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US farmland prices, particularly in the Mid-West, are moderating and in some places actually declining modestly from their peak in 2013\/14.\u00a0 US farmers have faced headwinds from a strong US dollar, soft USD-denominated commodity prices (particularly for soy and corn) and a continuing drought in some parts of the country.\u00a0 In contrast,<\/p>","protected":false},"author":252,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29531","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-quarterly-newsletters-insights"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>US farmland prices are softening. 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